The assessment in Budget Outlook 3 reflects the political priorities of the central government budget proposal for 2016, and it is based on the Government’s agreement with local governments and regional governments for 2016, an updated status for central government spending in 2015, and recent development in oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates etc.
The deficit on the general government budget balance is estimated at 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2015 and 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2016. For 2015, the deficit is increased by approximately ¼ per cent of GDP compared to the estimate from August 2015, and it is thus at the limit given by the Stability and Growth Pact. For 2016, the estimate is unaltered, and there continues to be a small margin of approximately ¼ per cent of GDP to the deficit limit of the EU.
Based on the central government budget proposal for 2016, the deficit of the central government finances (the CIL-account) is estimated at approximately DKK 67bn in 2016.
In accordance with the political priorities on the central government budget proposal, law proposals have been made to adjust the expenditure ceilings for 2015-18 and to determine the expenditure ceilings for 2019. The central government budget proposal and the Government’s agreement with local governments and regional governments for 2016 are in line with the Budget Law and the expenditure ceilings in the law proposals.