In light of the short-term forecast for the Danish economy, cf. Economic Survey, December 2003, the central government budget bill and the local government budgets for 2004, both the central government current, investment and lending account, i.e. the CIL-account and the general government finances show a continued surplus in 2004.
Increasingly clear signs of an international upturn have emerged in the second half of 2003. The budding global recovery is supported by record-low monetary policy rates, reduced geo-political uncertainties and fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Updated Convergence Programme for the period 2003-2010
A moderate international recovery is still expected to take off towards the end of the year and to gather further momentum in 2004. There are, however, only small and fragile signs of rising activity in USA and especially the euro area.
In light of the short term forecast for the Danish economy, cf. Economic Survey, August 2003, the central government draft budget bill and the agreements with local governments on the economy for 2004, both the central government current, investment and lending account, i.e. the CIL-account and the general government finances show a continuous surplus in 2004.
The international slowdown has been more prolonged than initially expected and an upswing is not likely to begin before the second half of 2003. A recovery of the international economy is expected to gather further momentum in 2004.
The outlook for the Danish economy has developed less favourably than expected in December. Unemployment has increased, employment has been declining and the private consumption, including car purchases, is growing more slowly. This can be seen in light of the international economic weakening, which has lasted longer than expected.
Income distribution and work incentives